DoomTicker 2026 Assessment
DoomTicker's 2026 assessment scores 10 global threat domains across 3 independent signal sources. The Adjusted Risk Index of 65.9/100 reflects confidence-weighted scoring where low-confidence signals are discounted, not amplified.
2026 Domain Scores (Institutional Lens)
| Domain | Score | Confidence | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| ☢ Nuclear Risk | 4.5/5 | 92% | ↗ Worsening |
| ⚔ Conflict Density | 4.2/5 | 88% | ↗ Worsening |
| 🌍 Climate & Ecology | 4.0/5 | 94% | ↗ Worsening |
| 🌀 Info Integrity | 4.5/5 | 85% | ↗ Worsening |
| 🧬 Biosecurity | 3.5/5 | 80% | ↗ Worsening |
| ⚡ AI Amplifier | 4.0/5 | 82% | ↗ Worsening |
| 👁 AI Sovereignty | 3.8/5 | 65% | ↗ Worsening |
| 🏛 Governance | 3.5/5 | 90% | ↗ Worsening |
| 👥 Social Cohesion | 3.5/5 | 78% | ↗ Worsening |
| 🎭 Social Manipulation | 3.5/5 | 76% | ↗ Worsening |
Key 2026 Developments
Nuclear: New START expired with no successor. SIPRI confirms three-way arms race (US, Russia, China). Bulletin set clock at 85 seconds. Hypersonic missile proliferation now spans 9 nations.
AI: Autonomous drone swarms deployed in active conflict. AI systems making judicial and benefits decisions with <2% override rates. Compute concentration: top 3 labs control >80% of frontier capacity.
Social Manipulation: New domain added to DoomTicker in 2026. EU DisinfoLab exposed state-funded NGO influence networks. Senate Intel Committee documented foreign funding in 12 domestic organisations. Institutional social engineering patterns documented via Cass Review methodology.
Bulletin vs DoomTicker Comparison
| Metric | Bulletin 2026 | DoomTicker 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Output | 85 seconds (single hand) | 65.9/100 (10 decomposed domains) |
| Sources | 1 expert panel | 3 independent lenses |
| Domains tracked | ~3 mentioned | 10 scored independently |
| AI Sovereignty | Not tracked | 3.8/5 (worsening) |
| Social Manipulation | Not tracked | 3.5/5 (worsening) |
| Confidence scoring | None | Per-domain, per-lens |