About DoomTicker
DoomTicker is a triple-lens threat assessment tool that tracks 10 global risk domains across 3 independent signal sources. Unlike the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock — which relies on a single expert panel producing a single number — DoomTicker decomposes risk into scored, cited, confidence-weighted domains with transparent methodology.
The Catalyst Thesis
DoomTicker is built on the Catalyst Thesis (Skinner, 2026): the proposition that existential risk is not a single metric but a multi-domain, multi-source signal that requires decomposition to be actionable. A single hand on a clock face cannot represent the distinct trajectories of nuclear risk, AI sovereignty, climate collapse, and social manipulation simultaneously.
Methodology
Risk Calculation
Each domain score (0-5) is weighted by importance and directly penalised by confidence level. Low-confidence signals are discounted, not amplified. This prevents high-volume, low-quality signals from inflating the index.
Three Independent Lenses
- Institutional (Expert Panel): Peer-reviewed journals, SIPRI, IPBES, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, UN bodies, treaty organisations.
- People's Pulse (Social Signal): Verified signals from X, Reddit, YouTube. Prioritises geolocated footage, verified journalists, citizen science.
- Indie Eye (OSINT): Telegram, Signal, Mastodon, Substack, OSINT analysts, whistleblower drops. Triple-verified.
10 Threat Domains
- Nuclear Risk (NUC) — Arms race dynamics, treaty erosion, proliferation
- Conflict Density (CRS) — Active conflicts, escalation risk, civilian impact
- Climate & Ecology (ECO) — Planetary boundaries, biodiversity, resource stress
- Info Integrity (DIS) — Deepfakes, state disinfo, platform manipulation
- Biosecurity (BIO) — Pandemic risk, gain-of-function, lab safety
- AI Amplifier (AMP) — AI as force multiplier in military, cyber, social domains
- AI Sovereignty (SOV) — AI as potential dominant actor, loss of human override
- Governance (GOV) — Treaty architecture, institutional capacity, multilateral cooperation
- Social Cohesion (SOC) — Polarisation, migration pressure, civic fracture
- Social Manipulation (SOM) — Engineered social disruption, astroturfing, institutional capture
Data Sources
DoomTicker draws from 70+ active intelligence sources including APIs, RSS feeds, curated databases, and reference datasets. Sources span institutional (SIPRI, IPCC, WHO, IAEA), academic (Nature, Science, Lancet), press (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera), OSINT (Bellingcat, GDELT, ACLED, OpenSanctions), defence (Janes, IISS, Global Firepower), and financial (CoinGecko, FRED, IMF, World Bank) categories.
Team
Kevin Skinner — Creator and Principal Analyst, Artisans F&B Corp. Author of the Catalyst Thesis: "Humans vs Nature" (2026) and The Groove. Background in system dynamics, risk analysis, and cross-domain threat assessment.
Key Publications
- The Catalyst Thesis: "Humans vs Nature" — Decomposing existential risk for actionable assessment (Skinner, 2026)
- The Groove: System dynamics framework for understanding interconnected global risks
- DoomTicker Methodology Paper: Full technical documentation of the R formula, weight justification, and lens architecture
Cited By
Media mentions and academic citations will appear here as they accumulate. DoomTicker launched in 2026. If you cite DoomTicker in your work, please let us know at [email protected].
For Researchers
Academic researchers and institutional reviewers can request free Institutional-tier access for methodology evaluation.
Citation
Skinner, K. (2026). "The Catalyst Thesis: Decomposing Existential Risk for Actionable Assessment." DoomTicker Project. https://doomticker.com/about