About DoomTicker
DoomTicker is a triple-lens threat assessment tool that tracks 10 global risk domains across 3 independent signal sources. Unlike the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock — which relies on a single expert panel producing a single number — DoomTicker decomposes risk into scored, cited, confidence-weighted domains with transparent methodology.
The Catalyst Thesis
DoomTicker is built on the Catalyst Thesis (Skinner, 2026): the proposition that existential risk is not a single metric but a multi-domain, multi-source signal that requires decomposition to be actionable. A single hand on a clock face cannot represent the distinct trajectories of nuclear risk, AI sovereignty, climate collapse, and social manipulation simultaneously.
Methodology
Risk Calculation
Each domain score (0-5) is weighted by importance and directly penalised by confidence level. Low-confidence signals are discounted, not amplified. This prevents high-volume, low-quality signals from inflating the index.
Three Independent Lenses
- Institutional (Expert Panel): Peer-reviewed journals, SIPRI, IPBES, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, UN bodies, treaty organisations.
- People's Pulse (Social Signal): Verified signals from X, Reddit, YouTube. Prioritises geolocated footage, verified journalists, citizen science.
- Indie Eye (OSINT): Telegram, Signal, Mastodon, Substack, OSINT analysts, whistleblower drops. Triple-verified.
10 Threat Domains
- Nuclear Risk (NUC) — Arms race dynamics, treaty erosion, proliferation
- Conflict Density (CRS) — Active conflicts, escalation risk, civilian impact
- Climate & Ecology (ECO) — Planetary boundaries, biodiversity, resource stress
- Info Integrity (DIS) — Deepfakes, state disinfo, platform manipulation
- Biosecurity (BIO) — Pandemic risk, gain-of-function, lab safety
- AI Amplifier (AMP) — AI as force multiplier in military, cyber, social domains
- AI Sovereignty (SOV) — AI as potential dominant actor, loss of human override
- Governance (GOV) — Treaty architecture, institutional capacity, multilateral cooperation
- Social Cohesion (SOC) — Polarisation, migration pressure, civic fracture
- Social Manipulation (SOM) — Engineered social disruption, astroturfing, institutional capture
Team
Kevin Skinner — Creator, Artisans F&B Corp. Author of the Catalyst Thesis.
Citation
Skinner, K. (2026). "The Catalyst Thesis: Decomposing Existential Risk for Actionable Assessment." DoomTicker Project. https://doomticker.com/about